Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-14 8.907080 10.233119 11.661975 13.312777 15.163990 17.172398 19.512670
2025-12-21 6.556573 8.259998 10.242129 12.705846 15.671838 19.112502 23.389849
2025-12-28 5.737080 7.661084 10.010122 13.064142 16.901904 21.534687 27.516760
2026-01-04 5.047906 7.108041 9.734948 13.290062 17.929705 23.728303 31.464934
2026-01-11 4.402775 6.503157 9.287510 13.191894 18.458861 25.242501 34.551573
2026-01-18 3.865628 5.971139 8.865035 13.057915 18.887451 26.602651 37.460627
2026-01-25 3.464716 5.577834 8.580207 13.061618 19.464311 28.146770 40.643047
2026-02-01 3.154491 5.278791 8.391711 13.167418 20.162751 29.860906 44.104452
2026-02-08 2.837118 4.932116 8.096341 13.081920 20.562240 31.154643 47.014281
2026-02-15 2.553874 4.607295 7.800728 12.962680 20.886890 32.334904 49.789349
2026-02-22 2.350043 4.388698 7.646363 13.037700 21.489166 33.923422 53.195324
2026-03-01 2.228704 4.294725 7.677994 13.396807 22.530525 36.187413 57.663177
2026-03-08 2.007740 4.010919 7.384444 13.225299 22.752511 37.258441 60.441625
2026-03-15 1.738783 3.613278 6.867702 12.650217 22.297668 37.273303 61.621596
2026-03-22 1.654911 3.545635 6.906180 12.996815 23.334353 39.617538 66.436266
2026-03-29 1.559502 3.445940 6.878939 13.225444 24.182807 41.693899 70.905099
2026-04-05 1.425108 3.255878 6.673292 13.126379 24.472031 42.883641 74.012888
2026-04-12 1.299531 3.069739 6.458656 12.993444 24.689714 43.956891 76.962254
2026-04-19 1.203379 2.933754 6.326106 12.996966 25.136702 45.413785 80.571425
2026-04-26 1.127836 2.833316 6.252894 13.102368 25.762333 47.183494 84.743866
2026-05-03 1.037468 2.690663 6.085115 13.017218 26.039747 48.372955 87.991084
2026-05-10 0.951786 2.548859 5.907027 12.898501 26.245550 49.441098 91.062405
2026-05-17 0.892547 2.461294 5.832059 12.973194 26.804805 51.130193 95.227394